Building Your Voter Targeting Strategy and Message Framework for 2026

Last week we covered the five essential elements every postcard and letter-writing campaign needs: voter addresses, clear message, actionable steps, volunteers, and measurement. Now let’s dig into the two that determine whether anything else matters: who you’re targeting and what you’re saying to them.

Get these wrong and you’re sending postcards into the void. Get them right and everything else becomes easier.

Defining Your Voter Universe

Before you write a single word, you need to decide: are you mobilizing or persuading?

Mobilization targets voters who lean your way but don’t show up consistently. They agree with you. They just don’t vote. Your job is to get them to the polls.

Persuasion targets voters who show up reliably but haven’t decided which way to go. They vote. They just might not vote for you. Your job is to change their mind.

These require different lists, different messages, and different success metrics. Most campaigns should pick one primary goal, not both.

Choose mobilization when:

• Your district has strong baseline progressive support
• The race isn’t competitive enough to flip undecideds
• You have access to voter file data with modeled partisanship scores
• You’re focused on down-ballot races where turnout swings outcomes

Choose persuasion when:

• The race is genuinely competitive (within 5-10 points)
• There’s a meaningful population of ticket-splitters in recent elections
• You have a clear contrast issue that moves moderates
• You’re targeting specific precincts that swing between parties

The honest truth: persuasion is harder. Most campaigns overestimate how many voters are truly persuadable. If you’re not sure, default to mobilization.

Building Your Targeting Criteria

Once you’ve picked your approach, narrow your universe using these filters:

Vote history matters most. A “1-of-4” voter (voted in one of the last four general elections) is very different from a “3-of-4” voter. For mobilization, target voters with spotty histories who match your partisan profile. For persuasion, target consistent voters with inconsistent party patterns.

Geography focuses your resources. Precinct-level targeting lets you concentrate on neighborhoods where your efforts will compound. A thousand postcards spread across a county accomplish less than a thousand postcards saturating three strategic precincts.

Demographics are overrated. Age, gender, and race can refine your targeting, but vote history and geography do most of the work. Don’t over-complicate your model. The fanciest targeting criteria mean nothing if your list is too small to matter.

Watch for diminishing returns. A universe of 5,000 well-targeted voters will outperform a universe of 500 perfectly targeted voters. Precision costs scale. At some point, “good enough” targeting beats “perfect” targeting that you can’t afford to reach.

Creating Your Message Framework

Now that you know who you’re talking to, figure out what to say. One thing. Not five things. One.

The research is clear: messages that try to cover multiple issues communicate nothing. Your postcard gets three seconds of attention. Use them.

For mobilization messages, use this framework:

• Identity: Remind them they’re part of something (“As a [neighborhood/community] voter…”)
• Stakes: What’s at risk in this specific election
• Action: Exactly what to do and when

Example: “Oak Park voters have a chance to protect local schools on March 5th. Return your ballot by March 1st to make sure your voice counts.”

For persuasion messages, use this framework:

• Local impact: How the issue affects their daily life
• Contrast: What’s different about your candidate or position
• Action: Exactly what to do and when

Example: “The new development proposal would add 2,000 cars to Main Street daily. Candidate X supports the traffic study. Candidate Y doesn’t. Vote March 5th.”

The postcard test: If you can’t say your message in 30 words, you don’t have a message. You have a press release. Revise until it fits.

Stay disciplined across segments. You can tailor emphasis for different voter groups, but your core message should be consistent. A campaign saying different things to different audiences has no message at all.

Putting It Together

Your targeting and message framework should reinforce each other. If you’re mobilizing young progressive voters, your message should speak to what young progressives care about in their daily lives. If you’re persuading suburban moderates, your message should address their specific concerns without alienating your base.

Next week, we’ll cover the third piece: volunteer recruitment and campaign execution. The best targeting and message framework in the world means nothing without the people to deliver it.

What races or issues are you building your 2026 strategy around?